Machine learning lab

Box Office Verdict

Type in your clicks. Get the verdict, the odds, and where to send tomorrow's traffic.

How it works

Honest limits

  • Peeking still costs you

    Checking every day and stopping the moment it says Ship raises the odds of a false win. Pick your bar before you start, and treat early verdicts as provisional.

  • Yes or no outcomes only

    It counts clicks, sign ups and callbacks. It does not weigh revenue or order size.

  • Run whole weeks

    Weekend visitors behave differently. Stop on the same weekday you started.

  • Keep audiences comparable

    Each version should get the same kind of traffic over the same dates. Changing the audience halfway breaks the comparison.

Your numbers never leave this page. The only copy is the link in the address bar.

Why this works

The split above is Thompson sampling. Here it runs live against five posters with hidden click rates, racing two simpler rules. Lower regret means fewer visitors wasted on weaker versions.

visitor 0 / 2000
Speed
Horizon

Thompson posteriors

0%10%19%
The Last ReelMidnight MatineeStatic HeartsBooth 7Intermissiondashed · true rate

Cumulative regret

1.02000 visitors
Thompson · 0.0ε-greedy · 0.0UCB1 · 0.0

Pulls per marquee

The Last Reel
0
0
0
Midnight Matinee
0
0
0
Static Hearts
0
0
0
Booth 7
0
0
0
Intermission
0
0
0
Hidden click rates · drag to edit